March 2025 | Released April 30, 2025

Expenditures and inflation

From February 2025 to March 2025:

• Headline PCE price index inflation was -0.04 percent.
• Core PCE price index inflation was 0.03 percent. This excludes food and energy prices, which tend to be more volatile.
• All services inflation was 0.15 percent.
• All goods inflation was -0.48 percent.
  • Durable goods inflation was -0.05 percent.
  • Nondurable goods inflation was -0.71 percent.

• Real personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased by 0.70 percent, or $114.1 billion.
• Real PCE on all services increased by 0.41 percent, or $44.28 billion.
• Real PCE on all goods increased by 1.34 percent, or $74.34 billion.
  • Real PCE on durable goods increased by 3.21 percent, or $66.98 billion.
  • Real PCE on nondurable goods increased by 0.35 percent, or $12.29 billion.

• The nominal personal savings rate decreased by 0.2 percentage points to 3.9 percent.

From March 2024 to March 2025:

• Headline PCE price index inflation was 2.29 percent, which is higher than the Federal Reserve’s target of 2 percent.
• Core PCE price index inflation was 2.65 percent.

Income and savings

From February 2025 to March 2025:

• Headline personal income increased by 0.46 percent, or $116.82 billion.
• Real disposable personal income per capita increased by 0.46 percent, which means that after tax income rose more quickly than prices.

Table 1. Income and Consumption Indicators

	Mar 2025	Feb 2025	Chg. from Feb 2025
Income and outlays growth (m/m)
Real Disposable Personal Income	0.50%	0.35%	0.15pp
Real Personal Consumption Expenditures	0.70%	0.10%	0.60pp
Month-over-month PCE inflation
Headline	-0.04%	0.44%	-0.48pp
Core	0.03%	0.50%	-0.47pp
Year-over-year PCE inflation
Headline	2.29%	2.69%	-0.40pp
Core	2.65%	2.96%	-0.31pp

Table 2. Cleveland Federal Reserve Forecast

	Cleveland Fed forecast	Actual	Forecast error
Month-over-month PCE inflation
Headline	0.00%	-0.04%	0.04pp
Core	0.10%	0.03%	0.07pp
Year-over-year PCE inflation
Headline	2.19%	2.29%	-0.10pp
Core	2.54%	2.65%	-0.11pp

Upcoming releases

Date	Time	Release	Data source
May 02	08:30 AM	Monthly Employment Update, April 2025	Bureau of Labor Statistics
May 06	08:30 AM	Monthly Trade Update, March 2025	Bureau of Economic Analysis
May 07	10:00 AM	Monthly Debt Update, May 2025	U.S. Treasury
May 13	08:30 AM	Monthly Inflation Update, April 2025	Bureau of Labor Statistics
May 13	10:00 AM	Monthly Fiscal Update, April 2025	U.S. Treasury
May 21	10:00 AM	State Employment Update, April 2025	Bureau of Labor Statistics
May 29	08:30 AM	Monthly GDP Update, Q1 2025 Second Estimate	Bureau of Economic Analysis
May 30	08:30 AM	Monthly Expenditures Update, April 2025	Bureau of Economic Analysis

Notes

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis; JEC Republicans calculations

“pp” = percentage points; “M/M” = month over month; “Y/Y” = year over year

Consistent with the Bureau of Economic Analysis, monthly figures are seasonally adjusted. Discrepancy in change figures is possible due to rounding.