June 2026 | Released July 30, 2026


+3.67 percent
PCE price index inflation
Jun 2025 to Jun 2026
+0.40 percent
Change in real PCE
May 2026 to Jun 2026
+0.20 percent
Change in personal income
May 2026 to Jun 2026


Expenditures and inflation


From May 2026 to June 2026:

  • Headline PCE price index inflation was -0.11 percent.
  • Core PCE price index inflation was 0.13 percent. This excludes food and energy prices, which tend to be more volatile.
  • All services inflation was 0.13 percent.
  • All goods inflation was -0.63 percent.
    • Durable goods inflation was 0.02 percent.
    • Nondurable goods inflation was -0.97 percent.


  • Real personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased by 0.40 percent, or $67.96 billion.
  • Real PCE on all services increased by 0.26 percent, or $28.34 billion.
  • Real PCE on all goods increased by 0.73 percent, or $42.03 billion.
    • Real PCE on durable goods increased by 1.48 percent, or $32.18 billion.
    • Real PCE on nondurable goods increased by 0.34 percent, or $12.04 billion.


  • The nominal personal savings rate decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 2.7 percent.


From June 2025 to June 2026:

  • Headline PCE price index inflation was 3.67 percent, which is higher than the Federal Reserve’s target of 2 percent.
  • Core PCE price index inflation was 3.29 percent.



Income and savings


From May 2026 to June 2026:



Table 1. Income and Consumption Indicators

Jun 2026 May 2026 Chg. from May 2026
Income and outlays growth (m/m)
Real Disposable Personal Income 0.31% 0.24% +0.07pp
Real Personal Consumption Expenditures 0.40% 0.39% +0.01pp
Month-over-month PCE inflation
Headline -0.11% 0.46% -0.57pp
Core 0.13% 0.33% -0.20pp
Year-over-year PCE inflation
Headline 3.67% 4.08% -0.41pp
Core 3.29% 3.42% -0.13pp


Table 2. Cleveland Federal Reserve Forecast

Cleveland Fed forecast Actual Forecast error
Month-over-month PCE inflation
Headline -0.12% -0.11% -0.01pp
Core 0.19% 0.13% +0.06pp
Year-over-year PCE inflation
Headline 3.65% 3.67% -0.02pp
Core 3.33% 3.29% +0.04pp


Table 3. Personal Consumption Expenditures by category

Expenditure category Jun 2026 May 2026 Chg. from May 2026 Jun 2025 Chg. from Jun 2025
Housing and utilities $3,955.9B
(17.83%)
$3,950.2B
(17.86%)
+0.14%
(-0.03pp)
$3,802.7B
(18.22%)
+4.03%
(-0.39pp)
Health care $3,741.0B
(16.86%)
$3,718.2B
(16.81%)
+0.61%
(+0.05pp)
$3,537.7B
(16.95%)
+5.75%
(-0.09pp)
Financial services and insurance $1,851.2B
(8.34%)
$1,837.2B
(8.31%)
+0.76%
(+0.04pp)
$1,669.0B
(8.00%)
+10.92%
(+0.35pp)
Food and beverages purchased for off-premises consumption $1,573.9B
(7.09%)
$1,568.3B
(7.09%)
+0.36%
(+0.00pp)
$1,527.7B
(7.32%)
+3.03%
(-0.23pp)
Food services and accommodations $1,560.7B
(7.04%)
$1,557.9B
(7.04%)
+0.18%
(-0.01pp)
$1,499.2B
(7.18%)
+4.10%
(-0.15pp)
Motor vehicles and parts $784.0B
(3.53%)
$766.6B
(3.47%)
+2.27%
(+0.07pp)
$747.7B
(3.58%)
+4.85%
(-0.05pp)
Recreational goods and vehicles $779.2B
(3.51%)
$765.4B
(3.46%)
+1.81%
(+0.05pp)
$696.9B
(3.34%)
+11.82%
(+0.17pp)
Transportation services $767.7B
(3.46%)
$760.6B
(3.44%)
+0.93%
(+0.02pp)
$698.4B
(3.35%)
+9.92%
(+0.11pp)
Pharmaceutical and other medical products $748.6B
(3.37%)
$750.9B
(3.39%)
-0.30%
(-0.02pp)
$729.3B
(3.49%)
+2.65%
(-0.12pp)
Clothing and footwear $605.9B
(2.73%)
$599.4B
(2.71%)
+1.09%
(+0.02pp)
$562.0B
(2.69%)
+7.80%
(+0.04pp)
Furnishings and durable household equipment $538.5B
(2.43%)
$533.6B
(2.41%)
+0.92%
(+0.01pp)
$509.5B
(2.44%)
+5.71%
(-0.01pp)
Gasoline and other energy goods $507.8B
(2.29%)
$555.9B
(2.51%)
-8.65%
(-0.22pp)
$413.1B
(1.98%)
+22.94%
(+0.31pp)
Education services $373.4B
(1.68%)
$370.9B
(1.68%)
+0.69%
(+0.01pp)
$362.5B
(1.74%)
+3.00%
(-0.05pp)
Communication $326.3B
(1.47%)
$330.3B
(1.49%)
-1.19%
(-0.02pp)
$322.4B
(1.54%)
+1.22%
(-0.07pp)
All other expenditures $4,070.0B
(18.35%)
$4,053.6B
(18.33%)
+0.40%
(+0.02pp)
$3,790.3B
(18.16%)
+7.38%
(+0.18pp)

Note: Each month column shows the nominal dollar amount at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) for each expenditure category and its share of total expenditure in parentheses. In the gray “change” columns, the percent value indicates the change in the annualized dollar amount over the period, and the percentage-point value in parentheses indicates the change in that category’s share of total expenditure over the period.


Upcoming releases


Date Time Release Data source
Aug 04 08:30 AM Monthly Trade Update, June 2026 Bureau of Economic Analysis
Aug 07 08:30 AM Monthly Employment Update, July 2026 Bureau of Labor Statistics
Aug 07 10:00 AM Monthly Debt Update, August 2026 U.S. Treasury
Aug 12 08:30 AM Monthly Inflation Update, July 2026 Bureau of Labor Statistics
Aug 13 10:00 AM Monthly Fiscal Update, July 2026 U.S. Treasury
Aug 21 10:00 AM State Employment and Unemployment, July 2026 Bureau of Labor Statistics
Aug 26 08:30 AM Monthly Expenditures Update, July 2026 Bureau of Economic Analysis
Aug 26 08:30 AM Monthly GDP Update, Q2 2026 Second Estimate Bureau of Economic Analysis


Notes


Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis; JEC Republicans calculations

“pp” = percentage points; “M/M” = month over month; “Y/Y” = year over year

Consistent with the Bureau of Economic Analysis, monthly figures are seasonally adjusted. Discrepancy in change figures is possible due to rounding.